Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $98,647$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,660.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(98,660.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,277$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(711 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,216.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,216.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,991$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $127,659$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,899.2}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(130,899.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,461$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(297 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,761.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,761.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $56,032$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,246$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,982.9}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(15,982.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $235$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(29.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234.4}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(234.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,947$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,730$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,230.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(18,230.5\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $137$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.99 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.7)}}\) (asimptote \(336.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,627$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $874$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{860.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(860.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.51 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 11.5)}}\) (asimptote \(14.6\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $563$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,278$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(32.6 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,197.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 81.7)}}\) (asimptote \(19,197.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{0.048t}\) (doubling rate \(6.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.3}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(60.3\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,291$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,485$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,583.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,583.7\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $623$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(56.9 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{651.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(651.5\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,547$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,656$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,455.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(48,455.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $191$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(23.4 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 25.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,989$ on 2020-05-04