Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $98,647$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,660.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(98,660.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,277$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(711 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,216.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,216.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,991$ on 2020-05-04

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $127,659$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,899.2}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(130,899.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,461$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(297 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,761.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,761.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,032$ on 2020-05-04

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,246$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,982.9}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(15,982.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $235$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(29.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234.4}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(234.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,947$ on 2020-05-04

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,730$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,230.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(18,230.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $137$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.99 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.7)}}\) (asimptote \(336.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,627$ on 2020-05-04

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $874$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{860.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(860.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.51 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 11.5)}}\) (asimptote \(14.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $563$ on 2020-05-04

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,278$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(32.6 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,197.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 81.7)}}\) (asimptote \(19,197.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{0.048t}\) (doubling rate \(6.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.3}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(60.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,291$ on 2020-05-04

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,485$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,583.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,583.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $623$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(56.9 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{651.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(651.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,547$ on 2020-05-04

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,656$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,455.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(48,455.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $191$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(23.4 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 25.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,989$ on 2020-05-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 87%
Korea, South recovered 83%
Taiwan* recovered 69%
Iran recovered 63%
Uzbekistan recovered 43%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 41%
Israel recovered 39%
Turkey recovered 31%
Japan recovered 12%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,966$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,316.6}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,316.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,148.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 25.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,148.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $537$ on 2020-05-04

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,987$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(806 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,897.3}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 18.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,897.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(20.5 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.8}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 10.1)}}\) (asimptote \(53.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $193$ on 2020-05-04

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,804$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,313.7}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,313.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $254$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(51.2 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(258.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,267$ on 2020-05-04

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $438$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(76.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{427.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(427.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-04

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-05-04